Lack of leadership is the cry that goes up when a business starts to struggle or fails. It is cited as the single cause that has led to its downfall ( similar cries can be heard in public organisations: health and social care, police etc. ). But what is this panacea for all business ills ?

Business leadership is difficult to define. A quick search on the web shows that there are over 700 million hits for the word ‘leader’ which is halved to 350 million for ‘business leaders’. Web sites will describe a range of traits of a successful business leader: singular vision, powerfully passionate, fearlessness and most adjectives that suggests an other worldly being ! Throw into the mix Business School courses with titles such as: Leading change, Leading business in the future, Essential Leadership and so on, and it is clear that defining business leadership is like grasping a slippery bar of soap !

Of course the person at the top of a business is seen as a leader: the captain of the ship. They make the decisions about the future direction of the business and change tack through investments and re-organisations. But leadership can happen in any part of a business or organisation: production line team leaders, ward sisters, chief petty officers, football captains etc. all have their part to play in the leadership of a business.

The world is a messy place and it is no more less than in a business. Therefore a business has to live with uncertainty. This uncertainty permeates into the daily activities of its people: where will future orders come from ? - will they have a job after reorganisation ? - do I have a career ? and so on. The role of the leader is to make sense of the uncertainty and vocalise it in a way that clarifies and provides support to its people, and through their actions they reinforce the words that they are using.

Many examples can be put forward as good business leaders, but the person that stands out for me is Sir John Harvey-Jones . He first came to my attention on the TV series Troubleshooter with his larger than life character and straight talking ( favourite quote: “there are no bad troops, only bad leaders” ) where he gave advice to manufacturing companies. Also, his book Making It Happen: Reflections on Leadership remains one of the best books on Leadership, and his many articles and speeches ( for example see Turnarounds test imagination and courage ) give fascinating insight into business leadership.

However, it was a chance discussion that sealed my respect for Harvey-Jones. Many years ago I was in a businesses meeting that included three ex-apprentices from his old company ICI who had been made redundant during major reorganisations ( he had turned ICI from a loss making business to the first UK company to make £1 bn profit in 30 months ). I asked them how good was he really. The all answered in glowing terms that what I saw on the TV was what he was like and although his actions had made them redundant they still held him in high regard. Testament to his leadership skills !

Business leadership is difficult to define and yet it has a direct impact of the way that a business manages itself in an uncertain world. The uncertainty brings new demands and ultimately change. Against this uncertainty, business leaders have to spell out what needs to be done in clear and simple words that can reach all parts of the organisation. They have to give their people - who are the best at knowing about the work that they carry out - the responsibility to make the changes to meet the new demands. Finally, they need to behave in a way that reinforces the underlying values of the business which emphasises how a business conducts itself. If this can be achieved then business leadership may gain some respect rather than pointed to as the source of all problems.

Mathematics creates a dilemma: most people agree that it is an important skill to have for everyday living as well as the economic future of the country, but it is socially acceptable to be “absoulutely useless at maths”?

The state of mathematics in the UK bubbles to the top of the news headlines: Numeracy skills have got worse, not better and Asia tops biggest global school rankings. Experts opinion are sought on the state of mathematics; they give advice on what needs to be done. Journalists bounce the subject around: For Britain’s pupils, maths is even more pointless than Latin,and Maths isn’t the problem - the way it’s taught is. All of this is against a background of drip fed statistics: adult numeracy has dropped from 26% of the population in 2003 to 22% in 2011, and eight out of ten people don’t know what APR means let alone how to calculate it ( a sizeable minority think it’s short for April ). Government ministers respond with tweaks to the mathematics curriculum fully expecting a swift implementation. But the topic sinks back down to the lower depths of the public consciousness. Until the next survey sparks another heated debate.

The problem with developing skills in mathematics is failing to recognise that it is a language. A language that uses numbers, not German or French. And like most languages it is a skill that has to be practiced regularly. The language of mathematics consists of activities that involve additions, subtractions, multiplication and divisions which are used to quantify the amount of money in our banks, search for the best deals on the web and and count the number of days left before our next holiday. Like any other language, our skill in its use is linked to how important it is in our lives. Even equations with their strange appearance of \(x\) and \(y\)’s have an important role in our lives. When understood mathematical symbols can unlock a new set of skills that can have many applications, for example working out compound interest which is important in calculating the amount of money required for a happy retirement.

President Ronald Reagan once remarked “you persuade people through reason but motivate through emotion.” In the case of mathematics there are enough reasons to persuade people about its importance: managing household budgets, improved job opportunities, transferable skills, planning for the future, improved critical thinking and so on, but how can people be motivated to use mathematics?

Like learning any language the earlier it is started the better. It builds confidence and reduces the anxiety that many experience in later life. The early stages of mathematics requires a lot of practice: counting, multiplying, dividing, measuring, and so on, but this can be done by applying those skills to problems that affect everyday life. For example, managing pocket money, writing software to monitor local wildlife, building models to predict the impact of waste on the local environment around the school etc.

Another area is the impact of mathematics on the world that we live in. Mathematicians, and those who use mathematics, need to communicate to as wide an audience as possible about the benefits that mathematics can bring rather than discussing the latest solution to an equation. Also, those with mathematical skills need to make connections to other areas of society ( rather than on-going areas of academia, industry or governments ) and make new links e.g. health, social problems, etc. Breaking into new areas will create a pioneering spirit which could motivate others to join in.

In the public domain more effort is required to raise the profile of mathematics. Mathematics institutes and organisations reinforce academic achievement when they should be analysing the level of mathematics skill in the population - why don’t they walk around supermarkets and ask shoppers about using mathematics rather holding another survey amongst themselves? And where is the popular face of mathematics? Where is mathematics Brian Cox? If there was a popularity vote between Brian Cox and Marcus du Sautoy ( the closest equivalent to Brian Cox ) then I feel the Professor Cox would win by a mile! Those involved in mathematics should ask why that would be and then take what can be learned and apply to promoting mathematics.

Therefore the challenge, and plea, to mathematics teachers, authors, experts, governments and industry is to develop an understanding of the emotional aspects of mathematics and then tap into it to motivate its greater use, rather than wasting time and money on another survey. Maybe the next time a celebrity proudly claims that they are ‘rubbish at maths’ then the web will crash with the volume of clicks as people unfollow or unfriend them !

There is always an awkward moment when meeting people for the first time and the conversation turns to “What do you do ?”. I am thrown into a dilemma: do I include in my reply that I am an Engineer ( or worse a Systems Engineer! ). When I blurt out something about being an Engineer their reply is usually along the lines of “Good we need lots of Engineers to get us out of this recession” and then they quickly move onto the price of houses or the weather.

However, the situation is changing. In a recent Harvard Business Review about the Best-Performing CEO’s in the World an interesting result emerged: 24 out of the top 100 CEOs are Engineers. The results also show that Engineers can head up non-technical companies. Not bad for a profession that has a public perception of repairing things!

An Engineer, can bring many qualities to business leadership. By the very nature of their profession, an Engineer takes a practical approach to problem solving. They break down complex problems into their component parts and then rebuild a new solution. They are restless in improving the performance of whatever they are working on whether it is making a car faster, safer or more fuel efficient. This urge to improve can best be summarised by one of my old lecturers who observed: “if you want to maintain the status quo – don’t get an Engineer involved. The first thing they will do is take it apart to understand how it works then put it back together in a way that makes it better” How many businesses can afford to maintain the status quo ?

Change is at the heart of any business, whether it is driven by competition, technology or legislation. An Engineer can apply their capability in taking a systems view to a business, and with their analytical skill, they can make decisions about parts of an organisation that will improve a businesses overall performance. Also, they instinctively take into account the risks and include safety margins to ensure successes. However communication is key in any change in a business and because an Engineer usually has worked their way to the top they understand the intricate workings of a business and can communicate effectively to different levels. All this adds up to successfully managing change.

Finally engineers can be both detailed and yet take a broader view of the environment that the business is working in. History is held together by many examples: Isambard Kingdom Brunel who changed the shape of a countries transportation system which increased its wealth, Henry Ford introduced techniques of mass production that are still followed today, and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos who continues to revolutionise how we shop.

I am now looking forward to meeting new people and when the awkward point in the discussion comes I will confidently add to my reply “ … and one of the fastest growing professions in business leadership!”

John Lennon famously said, “Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans”. And so it did. I had planned a week of developing ideas, gathering data for a project, business meetings and so on. Then life struck. With a bladder that felt like the size of a football I was rushed to the local Medical Centre where a urinary catheter was inserted to my great relief! Everything was put on hold. However, as an engineer with an interest in equipment that helps people manage, or recover from, an illness the situation was one I had explore further.

The purpose of a medical device is to “diagnose, prevent, or treat a disease or other conditions, and does not achieve its purposes through chemical action within or on the body.” They can range from disposable gloves through to Robotic Surgeons. The market for medical devices is projected to be a market worth $398 bn globally by 2017. The urinary catheter market is estimated to be worth $2.37 bn by 2020. Big business !

The urinary catheter has been around for 3500 years. The earliest ones consisted of bronze tubes, reeds, straws and curled-up palm leaves ( ouch ! ). The device has evolved throughout the centuries to the one that I used with all of its parts made from soft plastic. There must be many design challenges and off the top of my head they would include: minimise infection, no leakage, minimal pain during installation and extraction, ease of use for example when changing the bags. The actual list I am sure will be significantly longer.

Using the catheter requires some basic plumbing skills that most of us who connect garden hose pipes can easily master. The valves used on the bags are an example of keeping it simple with an intuitive way of switching it off and on. Also, through trial and error with a series of bands I managed to strap bag and pipe onto my leg in such a way that I could walk normally.

For my own interest, I started to gather data on how much I was drinking and volumes when emptying my bag ( inputs and outputs in engineering terminology ), which produced a fascinating insight into how my body was working. Given the problem that the catheter is managing - emptying urine from my body - and the constraints of everyday use, the one I used worked well.

It is interesting how the world changes for the user of a medical device. In my case, public toilets were key points of reference when out shopping. I developed a mental map of where and when the toilets were open. Of course planning is critical to cover all eventualities when out and about especially when drinking too much ! Another aspect that I didn’t fully appreciate was the reaction of others when using disabled toilets. Because I ‘looked normal’ the waiting queue outside the toilet would glance disapprovingly.

One final point. The District Nurses gave me great practical advice based on their experience of helping other people managing their catheters. For any medical device designer getting feedback from the people who are using it is an invaluable source of information for revisions to the design. In general, the users of medical devices can very often find better solutions to the problems of using it, even if it involves Duct Tape !

Next time I am sitting in the waiting room of my medical centre, probably listening to some John Lennon classics, I will be reflecting on the many people, over the centuries, who developed the urinary catheter and how the current version saved me from torturous pain !

Big thanks to the Doctors, Nurse Practitioners, District Nurses, and the people in the Dispensary for their professionalism and kindness during my urinary problem.

Probabilities crop up in the news, documentaries and blogs everyday. They cover a wide range of activities: will it rain today?, what are chances of becoming ill ?, or to place a bet or not? They seem to cover most aspects of life. But what is a probability?

When we flip a coin into the air to decided whether to stay in and watch TV or go out for a meal, then as it twists and turns there is no way to predict which way it will land. The decision has been left to a random outcome. It could land heads, or it could land tails. There is no way to predict. To quantify the uncertainty we calculate a probability. To do this we need to know the number of possible outcomes, in the case of a coin it is 2 - landing heads or landing tails. Therefore the probability of landing heads is 1 of 2 possible events which gives “1 in 2 chance of heads” or a probability of 1/2 or 0.5 ( in percentages “50% chance of landing heads” or in gambling terminology “evens” ). All probabilities follow the same principles but the calculations can be different.

In the case of predicting the weather it can’t be flipped up in the air like a coin ! Instead, the UK Meteorological Office uses mathematical models. The models describe the relationship between a very large number of variables for example temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction at points across the country. Combining the models with measurements from weather stations they use lightening fast computers to calculate the probability of rain in a region. Chances of rain are watched eagerly by farmers about to harvest their crops, events organisers wondering how many umbrellas to order, and supermarkets making sure they have enough ice cream to sell.

To plan the amount of resources required for patients, health organisations use medical records to calculate probabilities of developing a disease. In the case of cancer, medical records show how many people have developed one of the many different forms during a lifetime. All this information is gathered together and probabilities are calculated. For example in the UK population there is a 1 in 3 chance of developing cancer at some point in a lifetime.

Gambling is big business, in the UK it is approximately £14bn per year, and covers many activities from sport to whether it will snow on Christmas Day. Take football, at the beginning of the football season all teams have an equal chance of coming top of the league table by the end of the season. However, some teams have a stronger squad of players, or new managers bring different ideas about improving the performance of the team, and so on. Bookmakers take all of the factors and assess the chances of a particular team winning the league and offer odds, say 6-1 ( “6 to 1” ). In other words, the bookmaker thinks there is 6 times more chance of the team not winning the league compared to it winning ( equivalent probability is “1 chance in 7” or 14% chance of winning ). A gambler ( or punter ) places an amount of money with the bookmaker hoping that they are wrong and they win lots of money !

Probabilities quantify the level of uncertainty that a particular event will occur - they are a guide and not a prediction. They can be used to plan for rainy days, help the health system to prepare for future illnesses, and avoid losing money !