I am interested in a wide range of subjects: the philosopher Wittgenstein, baking, poetry, mathematics, fishing. Quite a mix. But I claim no in-depth knowledge in any of these subjects. However, when I meet people who are passionate about a subject they inspire me to add it to my already long list!

An example cropped up recently when I was attending a fly fishing show. The show was full of stands selling hooks, feathers, furs, tying tools, books and many other things that I wasn’t aware that I needed to tie a fly. In amongst the stands were tables where experienced fly tyers patiently answered my very basic questions. In the middle of one hall there was a large square where fly tyers were seated demonstrating their skill. As I slowly walked around them, asking myself whether I would ever reach their level of skill, a small group had gathered around one tyer so I joined in. He was delicately tying a fly that was so small we were all straining forward to try and see. At each each stage he explained why he was selecting the materials, how he was using the tools and enjoyed answering questions. Later in the day he was giving a talk about the history of the type of fly that he was interested in and how its design had developed over the years from the introduction of new materials, tools and techniques. The talk was packed and in my opinion it was the best of the day. After the show I bought the fly tyers book which opened my eyes to new things to be learned and is so well written that I am sure that a non fly tyer would enjoy it: The North Country Fly – Yorkshire’s Soft Hackle Tradition.

People who are passionate about their subject can crop up unexpectedly. For example we had a company install a new garage door. The company owner took us through the manufacturing history of our old doors, what was wrong with them and the advantages of the new doors. He also took into account how the new doors would affect the overall appearance of the house. He was passionate about garage doors and we felt that he could have spent most of the day discussing them! On a more regular basis we buy cheese from a stall in our local market. The stall holder will take time to explain the history, recipe, and the importance of cows milk to the quality of the cheese and will let us sample the different types. Although it can take over five minutes to buy a piece of cheese we always feel that we have learned something about the art of cheese making and look forward to our next purchase.

Passionate people concentrate on the ‘why’ as well as the ‘how’ and pick the correct level of communication for their audience. They have a command of detail, including the history of their subject as well as being knowledgable about the people who are also involved in the same area. They tend to be self motivated and whether they have a university degree about their subject is secondary. They are also passionate about sharing their subject. But it is interesting to note that the passion of a person can be blunted by the media. For example, I am sure if I met Sir David Attenborough or Prof Brian Cox then their passion would be more effective whereas on the TV or Radio it is not at the same level as some of the people that I mentioned above. Therefore it is important to meet passionate people face to face. Another subtle difference is between somebody who is enthusiastic and a passionate person. An enthusiastic person can come across as excitable and showy about a subject and seem to be trying to sell it whereas a passionate person brings their subject to life.

In a world that seems to be full of experts and enthusiasts who are just a few clicks away who spout facts we need more passionate people who can renew our energy for subjects that we are already interested in or increase our interest and motivation into new subjects such as fighting climate change.

Holding my breath I knocked on the door. Waited. I knocked again. This time a softly spoken “yes” came back; I gripped the door handle and I went in.

The head of the Mathematics Department, the Prof, looked up and carefully put his Parker pen down. He was the first real mathematician that I had met. His room was lined with large glass fronted bookcases that bulged with mathematics journals. The only window in the room and it let the autumn light shine onto his desk. I was in awe. He sat upright in his neatly tailored light tweed jacket that he filled. As he started to tidy away the papers from the top of his desk and he looked up. I had never been this close to the Prof, he was usually several rows away in a lecture theatre, and the neatness of his black hair and the strong cheek bones made him look younger than he probably was. His intense eyes passed through his dark rimmed glasses and held me under scrutiny.

After completing an Engineering degree and a “year out” to earn some money I had decided that I really wanted to study Applied Mathematics. I enjoyed thinking engineering problems and then using mathematics to develop practical solutions. The course at Cranfield Institute of Technology ( now called Cranfield University ) was a two year conversion course that was developing me to Masters level in Applied Mathematics. But I was now in the orbit of real mathematicians and struggling.

The Prof had was an expert in partial differential equations which he had studied at Cambridge. These equations cover a wide range of applications but his speciality was in working out how molten steel flowed in castings. The technique of casting is used to shape components used in the everyday objects that we use from printers to aeroplanes.

I was good at applying formulae to solve mathematical problems but was hitting a brick wall with his homework. I started to take the Prof through my attempts at solving the problems, explaining the different formulae that I had tried to apply. Suddenly he sat back in his chair and in a frustrated voice said “Your not an Engineer now, you’re a Mathematician!” His outburst came as a shock after all I felt I was a mathematician wasn’t I on the course! We started going through the first problem and he pushed me to think harder about the properties of the problem: what were the equations telling me ?, could they be rearranged to see a better solution ?, could they be simplified to get a start on the solution ?, had I solved similar problems in the past ?, could I solve one small part of the problem and then build my way back to solving the original problem ? We moved through each problem and with his encouragement I started to learn that it was more important to understand the problem and play with ideas about solutions rather than simply apply formulae. Closing his door behind me I felt that I had been shown the first steps in becoming a mathematician and that the real work was ahead.

I still keep up with the latest developments in applied mathematics and when I start to think about an engineering related problem a sense of excitement begins as I let my imagination play with the equations. At the back of my mind is the Prof’s words steering me away from beaching on the shores of applying formulae.

Recently the paper shredder has been working overtime. It has been chewing its way through bills, bank statements and a few drawers worth of career documents: CVs, pay slips, bonus letters and redundancy notices. Stopping frequently to let it cool down, a thought emerged about my career and the path it had taken - had it been worth it ? Then I remembered the advice the philosopher Wittgenstein gave to Maurice Drury, one of his ex-students.

Wittgenstein met Maurice Drury in 1929 during his period as a philosophy lecturer at Cambridge University. He actively encouraged his students not to become professional philosophers, and in Drury’s case after graduating he became a psychiatrist. They met as often as circumstances allowed until Wittgenstein’s death in 1951.

During one visit they went for an evening walk when Drury, who was a newly trained doctor, doubted his career path, because of his “ignorance and clumsiness.” At the time Wittgenstein brushed off the conversation as Drury’s lack of experience. Later that evening he wrote him a letter giving advice about his choice of career. After a section where he admonished Drury for “thinking about himself” when he should be “thinking about others e.g. your patients”, he wrote:

“But not because being a doctor you may not go the wrong way, or go to the dogs, but because if you do, this has nothing to do with your choice of profession being a mistake. For what human being can say what would have been the right thing if this is the wrong one? You didn’t make a mistake because there was nothing at the time you knew or ought to have known that you overlooked.”

Wittgenstein’s approach to solving philosophical problems was to untangle the misuse of words. In particular, it is using words where they have lost their meaning that leads to philosophical problems for example: is truth the highest good?, are computers conscious? and can he can feel my pain? Wittgenstein’s solution was to show that the use of words such as “truth”, “good”, and “conscience” were being misused and once shown then the problems disappear.

In their conversation Wittgenstein picked up on Drury’s use of the word “mistake” and questioned if he had used it correctly. The word mistake is used in the context of knowing the action that should be taken. For example when I take a route to visit a friend and arrive late because I took a wrong turn I may say “Sorry I am late, but I made a mistake and turned left instead of right at the traffic lights”. I am using the word mistake correctly because I am describing where I went wrong. Therefore within the context of visiting my friend the word mistake is being correctly used and its meaning is clear to both of us. However, in the case of a career to use the word mistake correctly would mean that I would have known what the correct career route was, and nobody knows that because we can’t read into the future. Drury made the best decisions he could within the circumstances at that time.

Wittgenstein’s advice to Drury is not the standard career guidance that floods the book shops and web with ‘Ten Steps To Success’ type headings. Instead, he untangles the misuse of a word that leads to Drury’s frustration about his career choice. As the shredder grinds through the last staff appraisal, Wittgenstein’s career advice has questioned whether I was asking the right question!

To read the full letter, click here.

We live in a service economy but my experience is that the “service” part is sadly missing. Why is that ? Could it be that the ‘moral distance’ is far too long ?

Recently I ordered a product on line ( from a very well known high street retailer ). I clicked, payed and waited. And waited. After four days I still hadn’t received a delivery date ( they had promised that I would have the product within five days ). Checking my online account I found that the order had been “suspended” and my money had been returned. I phoned the helpline to find that the link between the online web site and the warehouse wasn’t working - they were selling products that were not in stock! I sent an email to complain about lack of communication about the order to which I received an apology about the situation and that they had passed the problem on. I then reordered another product and after thee days I received message requesting me to collect the parcel from the logistics company depot ( about an hour’s drive away ) - which I ignored! A few days passed and the product arrived. Three days later I received an email saying that there had been a problem with my first order! This story is not unusual. I have had problems with companies large and small, and I could write a “collected works” about the frustrating service from utility companies.

I am not blaming the front-line staff, they didn’t install the on-line system. They had to face the flack from irate customers probably with their hands tied by processes and protocols. This is a problem with the business leadership and the distance between their actions and the consequences on customers and frontline staff - the moral distance. The greater the moral distance the less that its business leaders have to suffer the moral consequences of their actions. The airline leadership not ensuring that there was adequate planning leading to the cancellation of flights and the gate agents fielding annoyed customers. There can be moral consequences from the lack of action. Politicians not making sure that predictable events were adequately resourced in the NHS and tens of thousands of operations cancelled leaving hospital staff to manage frustrated and ill people. In my case it is clear that the business leadership decided that an on-line presence was required. However following through the consequences of the action and making sure that the new on-line system was talking to the warehouse seems to have fallen through the gap, resulting in their customer service fielding telephone calls and emails from at least one annoyed customer.

Business leaders face a dilemma. As their business grows, or changes to meet the latest customer demands, then the moral distance will increase. The link between them and front line staff and their customers becomes extremely long. Can the moral distance be reduced ? Here are some thoughts. First, to assess the impact of any actions whether it is the implementation of a new sales system, procedures or training to manage customers, then the front line staff should always be involved. In my experience all front line staff are dedicated to their businesses, and they can provide some practical ways to make sure that the changes actually help customers.

Nothing is perfect in business when implementing change and it is critical that a ‘what-if’ analysis should be carried out e.g. what happens when we run out of stock? what happens when the helpline is busy? and so on. Also, check how the customer will be managed if something goes wrong. In my case I received no notification of a problem other than there was a ‘suspended’ message against the order which meant very little to me. A better word would have been “out of stock.”

Finally, business leaders should be visible, approachable and remain in contact with the frontline staff and their customers. This can be done in many ways, ranging from “Management by walking around” or regularly monitoring helplines, complaint systems or social media. In other words making it a priority that they are in contact with the frontline and customers.

It is clear that as the moral distance increases then the quality of service tends to reduce, not only for a business but for governments and other organisations. A reduction in the moral distance will put the “service” back into the service economy and next time I order a product it will arrive on time !

Medical terminology is full of complicated terms. Words such as rhinorrhea ( runny nose), cerumen ( ear wax ) and epistaxis ( nosebleed ) map out a land where only a few can tread. But recently I have had to step into it when I came across the term 'false positive'.

I have reached an age where health is starting to dominate my thoughts; in particular my prostate has been painfully brought to my attention. My doctor summarised the situation “your days of peeing over the school yard wall are over!” Therefore to diagnose the problem I have had various tests and examinations including the Prostate Specific Antigen ( PSA ) test which is used to detect prostate cancer. When searching the web to find out more about the test I came across the phrase “false positive” which seems like a riddle posed by Yoda for ‘Young Skywalker’ in Star Wars. How can something be “false” and yet “positive” ?

Developing a medical test is subject to many constraints. For example, the test should ideally be non-invasive, easy to use, and low cost. Also, because of the complexity of the human body and the limited level of knowledge about how it works the results from a medical tests are rarely 100% accurate. Accuracy is important. For example if a test is 90% accurate then the results of 90 tests out of 100 will correctly show whether a person has the disease or not. But for the remaining 10 tests the results will be wrong.

To work out what false positive means with respect to myself and the PSA test I grabbed my pen and paper and settled down to work out the following example. First, there is a lot of controversy about the accuracy of the PSA test therefore it is very difficult to get a definitive number on its accuracy. However, for the purposes of this example I assumed that it is 33% accurate ( or 1 in 3 ). It is important to note that if the test result is positive it does not mean that there is a probability of 33% of having prostate cancer. What is usually missed is the baseline information, which is the information about the situation before any testing is carried out. Therefore, to work out the probability of actually having prostate cancer I needed an estimate of the number of men in a population who will have prostate cancer - the baseline information. For this example I have used an estimate of 1 in 33 as a guide to who will have prostate cancer ( the chances of prostate cancer increases with age ).

The following steps work towards answering question: if the result of a PSA test is positive what is the probability of having prostate cancer ? :

To keep the numbers simple I have kept the population size down to 100 therefore, the following diagram shows 3 in every 100 who will have prostate cancer - approximately 1 in 33 ( the baseline information ):

Population showing 3 in 100 with prostate cancer

The following diagram shows the results from applying the PSA test with an accuracy of 1 in 3 ( 1 in three tests it gives a correct diagnoses ) where the plus signs are positive results:

Population after the results of the PSA test

From the digram it can be seen that the test gives the correct result for one case of prostate cancer and gets the other two cases wrong. The two wrong cases are called false negatives ( when designing a medical test the number of false negatives are minimised to reduce the chances of missing the disease ). The test gives positive results for 64 cases when there is no prostate cancer - which are the false positives. In other words the test returns a positive result when there is no disease. Therefore the probability that I could have prostate cancer is 1 in 65, and not 1 in 3 - the odds of not having prostate cancer when the test is positive have improved !

A large number of false positive results indicates that there is a low probability of having the disease. When a test has a low accuracy then more medical tests have to be performed. For example following a positive result from a PSA test then further tests will be required, for example an ultrasounds scan or a biopsy before a diagnosis is reached.

The PSA test is quick and cheap, it can costs between £30 - £50 per test, but it can be unreliable, However, there are new medical tests being developed to improve the accuracy in detecting prostate cancer, for example: Imaging techniques uising MRI, improved blood test and urine test.

Next time I discuss further medical tests with my doctor to diagnose the problems with my prostate I will be asking about its false positive result. It may not put my mind to rest but it will reduce the terminology fog and then I can concentrate on managing the situation !

For more information about the PSA test see: Should I have a PSA ? and for a detailed description of the mathematics behind the example discussed in this post see: Mathematics of a False Positive Test.