I knew that I had asked the wrong question. The toolbox thumped onto the floor and the top was slammed open. I would not ask again.
It was Friday morning and there had been a slow drip of water through the light fitting in the sitting room. I guessed it was from the upstairs shower. But I am no expert so I called our plumber Paul who arrived promptly. He has repaired many leaks over the years as well as installing new showers and bathrooms in our house. However, just that morning, I had been reading about robotics and Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) and how they would take over all of our jobs. This had prompted me to ask “Do you think plumbers will ever be replaced by a robot?”
Robotics and AI is reaching fever pitch in the media. Headlines proclaim that they are “a new form of life”, or that they can think “… and could make decisions against our will” and then there is the Killer robot ARMS RACE - if climate change doesn’t wipe us out then robots will!
Ideas about robots have been building up in the public conscience since the early 1940’s when Isaac Asimov formulated the Three Laws of Robotics, a set of rules to ensure friendly behaviour, and in the process coined the word “robotics”. This awareness has increased with films such as 2001: A Space Oydesst with H.A.L. and its ominous catch phrase: “I am afraid I can’t do that Dave”, Blade Runner where it seems to be impossible to distinguish between people and “replicants”, and the Terminator films where Skynet ( something similar to the Internet ) becomes self-aware and starts to wipe out humans who are seen to be a “threat”. The public are seeing robots everywhere, which has prompted the government to respond, as only they can, with a strategy! The Trade Union Conference has waded into the debate with a discussion paper that includes the phrase: “there is no need to panic” which is enough to make anyone feel nervous!
And yet in amongst the swirl of headlines about this revolutionary technology I still find myself waiting in a phone queue for over thirty minutes to sort out problems with an energy supplier, or have to wait nearly two weeks to see my doctor! And, of course, I still need a plumber to repair a leak in our shower.
Upstairs I heard Paul starting to lift the floorboards and search for the leak. From previous repair jobs I know that he will bring a multitude of skills and experience to repairing the leak: navigating around our rooms to find the pipes and locate the leak, finding out why it leaked - was it a loose connection or had the seal rotted away ?, repairing and testing the new joint, and then putting everything back so that it looks as though nothing had gone wrong. My imagination is struggling to see all those skills and experience in one robot!
Robots are machines that have been programmed to carry out a series of actions by themselves, and Artificial Intelligence is computer programs that mimic human intelligence on tasks such as learning, perception, problem-solving, language-understanding and/or logical reasoning. The first robot emerged in 1960 and was a programmable robot arm which was called Unimate. This paved the way for industrial robots to complete repetitive, difficult or dangerous tasks mainly in manufacturing. Most predictions show that they will continue to grow in numbers with sales expecting to triple by 2025. It is a similar story with AI. In the mid 60’s ELIZA was a computer programme that could hold a discussion with people by replying to typed in questions. Today AI is beating experts in games such as Chess, Go and the TV game show Jeopordy. AI will creep into all walks of life and the market for the technology is expected to increase from $500 million in 2015 to £14 billion by 2025.
In amongst the predictions about the declining future of humans there are some applications of robotics and AI that can make a positive difference. For example in healthcare robots are helping with prostate cancer surgery, and reducing hospital acquired infections such as MRSA. There are exciting new developments in detecting disease, for example using AI to detect the onset of Alzheimers by how people speak.
Similarly in education, although there are some over excited headlines such as “Intelligent machines will replace teachers within 10 years”, there are more practical applications of AI that are helping teachers. For example systems from Knewton’s and ACER use AI to tailor the learning material to the ability of the individual student as well as monitor their progress. Using these types of systems could free up teachers from increasing amounts of administration.
The hot topic at the moment is driverless cars which according to the headlines will be on our “roads within the next few years.”. But the jury is still out about how quickly it will be taken up by drivers, especially when leading lights as Jeremy Clarkson has had a couple of near death expereinces when the using the latest autonomous car. However, in Agriculture there is more scope for automation ( and less opportunity to wipe out people ). Driverless tractors are already here and there must be more scope for automated picking machines to replace the shortage of migrant workers since Brexit.
As Bill Gates once said: “We tend to overestimate the pace of change in the short term, but underestimate it in the long term.” Robotics and AI will have an increasing role in our lives but to what level and extent it is still not clear. My hope is that they will continue to take over the repetitive and dangerous work and improve our capabilities in learning, problem solving and making decisions.
Paul stuck his head around the door “All finished!”, and then with a smile “I bet a robot couldn’t have done that!” We both laughed. As I waved Paul off I made a few mental notes: up date the contact details of the electricians, roofers, bathroom tilers, painters, decorators and anybody else that we rely on to maintain our house, and not to ask them silly questions!